A favorable outcome for Ripple could result in XRP gains of 100% or more, a crypto executive says
The summary judgment ruling in the SEC’s case against Ripple Labs — expected any time now — could have major implications on the price of the company’s native token, XRP, and others.
Ben McMillan, founder and chief investment officer of IDX Digital Assets, said the XRP price, as well as the broader alt-coin market, could swing wildly following the ruling.
“A favorable outcome for Ripple could easily see XRP gain 100%-plus,” he told Blockworks in an email. “On the other side, depending on the specifics, an unfavorable ruling could see XRP retest the $0.30 range or lower.”
XRP’s price was about $0.54, as of 1:00 p.m. ET — up 7.5% in the last 24 hours and roughly 15% higher than seven days ago.
The SEC first alleged in 2020 that Ripple Labs and two of its executives raised more than $1.3 billion in 2013 via an unregistered security offering of XRP.
The token’s latest rally likely reflects the potential rising likelihood that Ripple wins the case outright, or that the court decides the case must go to trial, according to Matthew Sigel, head of digital assets research at fund manager VanEck.
“Algo traders may interpret such headlines on the tape as positive, but the truth will be in the details,” Sigel said. “Either way, I would speculate that a Ripple ‘win’ in this case might move XRP between 15 to 30% in either direction, with a [roughly] 5% reaction from ETH, and 10%-plus for other alt-coins, depending on the specifics.”
McMillan agreed the decision will likely have a price impact that goes beyond XRP.
“I think we’d see a general risk-on rally among the entire crypto ecosystem given how aggressively the SEC has been targeting all coins — other than bitcoin — as securities,” the IDX executive said.
The SEC and CFTC have brought actions against crypto companies in recent months as part of what industry watchers have called a turf war of sorts between the two regulators.
While SEC chairman Gary Gensler has said he believes a majority of crypto tokens — aside from bitcoin — are securities, the CFTC labeled bitcoin, ether and litecoin as commodities in its recent lawsuit against Binance.
“The Ripple decision has the potential to really provide some long-awaited and much needed clarity on this point which could be very bullish for the crypto-complex,” McMillan said.